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Apr 25, 2025

APRIL IS THE BOTTOM

April's Macro Cycle + Technicals Report

JFby Jeremy Fielder-
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The Market is Pricing in a Trade Deal 🤝

#1

Technical Report 📈

  • Momentum
  • Breadth

#2

Economic Report 📊

  • Growth
  • Inflation

#3

Financial Cycle Report 💲

  • Rates
  • Liquidity


Technical Report

The technicals show us what Investors/traders are actually doing versus what they say or how they feel

Only PRICE PAYS......

Finally the VIX (Fear index) has closed below 28. As long as we stay below 28, the market should regain its bullish trend. Fear is melting

MOMENTUM THRUST
On Wednesday 375 stocks made new 5-days highs! A clear acceleration in breadth momentum (New 5-day highs). Investors are loading up on equities again.

In the past, a Breadth thrust + Oversold Conditions (via RSI) was pretty much a risk on signal.....

Advance Decline signal
The # of stocks advancing versus declining (blue) are outpacing the SPX price, suggesting the rally is broadening because more and more stocks are rising. Add that to RSI and MACD are showing a pick up in momentum and you've got a rapid recovery.

Critical Levels (it's not over yet)


👇🏽 We want to keep an eye on how price reacts to the GOD CANDLE ceiling (the day Trump put a pause on tariffs). We also want to see if price can get above Anchored VWAP from the highs in February.

  • Possible Scenario's
  • High Beta Stocks are ahead of indices suggesting RISK ON sentiment is back.
  • Even Tesla bottomed following a very bad earnings report. Another example that investors believe the worst is over.
  • MSTR has been one of the strongest stocks reflecting RISK ON MOMENTUM.

Economic Report

Credit Spreads are tightening so the market is no longer pricing in a massive recession. It's still elevated, so we just want to make sure it's consistently cooling.👇🏽

Retail sales and durable goods are accelerating, the economy is not faltering yet.👇🏽

Inflation is falling, the FED can cut. 👇🏽


Financial Cycle

Now that Trump is no longer trying to FIRE POWELL, the bond market has stabilized and market rates are steady. Now we Wait for Powell to cut....The cut is the most bullish shift in the market.

Liquidity is rising on all fronts which makes for a very liquid financing environment in the 2nd 1/2 of the year. This is pushing up Bitcoin and the crypto complex.


BE PATIENT, Trump cannot Afford to F**** this up!