Justified Panic?

A short-term Panic always feels like the beginning of a bear market, and that very well could be the case. However, a short-term bottom is very close.

SPY is reaching a double exhaustion signal while the VIX makes a second explosive high over 20. In 2023, we saw this same panic selling, and the market found a bottom soon after. For long-term investors, this is an excellent opportunity to nibble the dip.

However, I wouldn't go all out, just nibble.

Worst case scenario
If the EU and China decide to retaliate, you can bet the market will panic even further, and Trump will be forced to calm the Market.

Petience
Let's keep in mind that monetary and fiscal policy are tailwinds meaning they are in position to handle a downturn as long as inflation keeps rolling over.

About Inflation
Consumers will not pay for higher prices, so stagflation won't last; it will quickly turn into deflation, triggering the FED to cut by summertime. Plus, look at the plunge in oil prices.

Sure, retaliation is probable, but so are ongoing negotiations. Trade war relief can happen any day now. I'm not saying it can't get worse, but a full-on trade war will trigger more money printing to support world economies.

Some Hopium
At the End of the Day, Trump's Ego will not allow him to ignore a Market Crash.
You know it kills him to see the scorecard decline. There are a lot of good things to come for crypto. Pro-regulation is here.

Friday as a short-term Low
No one is holding over the weekend (unless they know something), which makes Friday the perfect day for a late-day sell-off. Maybe VIX will be in the 30s?

For now, it looks like we'll see a nasty Low in April. Let's see what the employment report reveals and Powell's COMMENTS.