No Man's Land

Trump mentioned he's about 3-4 weeks away from making a deal with China. If this were true, the market would be climbing higher🚀....Trump says whatever feels right in the moment. Until we get a deal, we are in no man's land.

If the S&P index can trade above that GIANT GREEN CANDLE (the 90-day pause on Tariffs announcement), negotiations will likely be constructive, and the Bull market can resume. Below that giant green candle is a bear market.

In the near term, let's say from April through the End of May, the market looks like it will trade sideways. It's really up to Trump at this point. The Fed is hands off for a while.

Bitcoin looks much better than Stocks, and when the deal is done, I'm sure it will outperform GOLD. I'm biased for crypto, but history shows Bitcoin outperforms every other asset, especially after the Fed eases.

The positive news

If we pretend tariffs were not a thing, markets would be at all-time highs because the Fed would be cutting to normalize rates, not because the economy is failing, but because inflation is breaking. This is the Best News, overshadowed by tariffs.

THE VIX

Fear and Panic can only last so long. Outside of 2008, the VIX has always collapsed back to 20 within the next 30 days of its peak. Under 28, it should take a nose dive, reflecting a boost of confidence. If it happens to bounce, well 😅 more panic

This is a tough Market because there is no clarity on Fiscal or Monetary policy. The market is frozen. This is why the moment Trump announces trade negotiations with China, the market should rip, and when tariffs are reduced, the market will rip even more.

On the bright side, there are some good deals out there, and if things get worse, the discount will get even larger. Try to give yourself time, and stay optimistic.