Siege Economics

Tariffs Are the New Siege Tactics

Julius Caesar didn’t just defeat his enemies—he systematically obliterated them using siege tactics that left opposing forces no choice but to surrender. His playbook was simple yet brutally effective:

1. Surround the fortress – cut off any chance of escape.
2. Cut off supplies – starve them of food, water, and reinforcements.
3. Onset of starvation – weaken their bodies and their resolve.
4. Mutiny from within – turn them against their own leaders.
5. Slow psychological brutality – break their spirit before breaking their walls.
6. Surrender – leave them with no other option but total submission.

This methodical, patient strategy crushed enemies not by brute force, but by economic suffocation—and today, the same principles are being applied on a global economic scale.

Tariffs: Siege Economics in the Modern Era

Love him or hate him, @realDonaldTrump is a DAWG when it comes to leveraging economic pressure. Tariffs are modern-day siege tactics, executed not through swords and legions but through trade policy and economic leverage.

The reason this approach has a high likelihood of working is because the U.S. has enough economic "easing" mechanisms to absorb the short-term pain. Unlike 2018, when the Fed was tightening and tax cuts had already played out, this time is much different—the U.S. is strategically positioned to handle an economic slowdown.

Meanwhile, the rest of the world is dependent on U.S. spending (exports) for much of their GDP growth. Take that away, and these economies start to slowly starve, much like a besieged city cut off from supplies.

Onshoring & Reshoring: The Corporate Exodus

U.S. multinational corporations employ massive labor forces in foreign countries, but tariffs create a powerful incentive to bring manufacturing and production back home. Onshoring (keeping production in the U.S.) and reshoring (bringing it back from overseas) will crush foreign labor markets—on top of these economies already suffering from declining U.S. exports.

The choice for corporations is clear: make a deal or bleed out.

This process is self-reinforcing:

• The more corporations move back to the U.S., the more foreign economies weaken.
• The weaker they become, the more desperate they are to negotiate trade deals.
• The longer they resist, the more painful the economic siege becomes.

Why This Won't Lead to Runaway Inflation

Yes, the short-term effect will slow the U.S. economy, which is why I’m LONG bonds—but this slowdown will also crush inflation pressure while bringing down long-term interest rates (10-year Treasury yield).

A cooling economy opens the door for powerful monetary and fiscal stimulus without the risk of inflation spiraling out of control. The Department of Government Efficiency and Tech-driven Productivity ensures inflation remains in check, making this an ideal setup for policymakers to step in.

Monetary & Fiscal Powerhouses Are Aligning

• Monetary Policy: The Fed can cut rates up to 10 times and still land at just 2%, creating massive liquidity.
• Fiscal Policy: A slowdown pressures Congress to pass historic tax cuts, injecting more capital into the economy.
• TGA Spending: The Treasury General Account (TGA) will soon unleash more government spending, further fueling markets.

When fiscal and monetary forces align, they create the single most powerful driver for economic expansion.

The Deflationary Trifecta: The Market’s Ultimate Weapon

Don’t let inflation fears blind you—we are heading into a deflationary macro regime, which will trigger global easing:

• DOGE is deflationary (less government waste).
• AI is deflationary (higher productivity lowers costs).
• Oil prices are deflationary (energy costs aren’t pressuring CPI).

With base effects likely pushing the next two inflation reports into deflationary territory, the global economy is being reset.

Prepare for the RESET!