October is the BEAR market KILLER

Outside of the geopolitical conflict escalating into all-out war, the Santa Claus rally remains intact, although all-time highs look less and less likely to end the year. I'm Still Bullish going into yea-end. Here's my take

Earnings

78% of $SPX

companies have beaten EPS estimates to date for Q3, which is above the 5-year average of 77% and above the 10-year average of 74%.

Earnings are Positive

62% of $SPX companies have beaten revenue estimates to date for Q3, which is below the 5-year average of 68% and below the 10-year average of 64%.

Revenues Suck

Technicals

Objectively speaking, price does not show any signs of strength. If we don't bounce here, a great place to go long is at the bottom of the descending channel. I do expect a bounce based on BB, Stoch RSI. -Carbides

The Head & Shoulders Played out - Carbides

Take a Step Back to observe the Secular Bull Market

Consumers are Spending

The consumer is not falling off a cliff

Consumer Report + GDP

Consumer spending remains steady despite a consistent decline in confidence and sentiment. Is this a reflection of the decreasing income and savings rates, a result of the Middle Eastern war sparking inflation, or a combination of both factors?

Employment Robust

The Jobs market remains Robust

Inflation is Tame

Inflation Expectations have risen from a consumer standpoint however, the Fed's preferred inflation gauge is making progress.

Global Liquidity is Climbing

Global Liquidity conditions are quietly rising in the background of all the recession fears.

Crypto Loves liquidity

Long-term view

Macro Forces may PEAK sooner than later

It's so Taboo to say Bond Yields have peaked for the cycle because we've all been wrong; however, bond vigilantes (those punishing the treasury for spending), including Bill Ackman, Covered his short last week, which suggests the cost to carry the trade is becoming overwhelming, and other shorts are likely to cover. Whether it's stronger growth or inflation expectations, bond yields have moved up, just not this time.
The following macro data came in hotter than expected, and yields didn't budge.