- In June, Retail Investors poured a record $1.5 Billion into stocks: Top inflows Tesla, Apple, and NVIDIA ( J.P Morgan)
- 22 billion estimated net inflow into domestic equity mutual funds and ETFs for the week ending June 16th. (IIC)
The Short Squeeze
- Short Positioning - S&P 500
- Before the RALLY
- I'm betting this continues...here's why
1 | The Surprise Collapse of Inflation
Energy is the largest component of Inflation
Global Manufacturing leads energy demand
US + EUROPE + JAPAN. 👆🏾
Germany + UK + FRANCE. 👆🏾
China + Taiwan + South Korea. 👆🏾
- Cheap oil from Russia & Iran are capping prices; if Saudi cuts production, they lose market share.
- The virtualization of business and social meet-ups are here to stay. (just ask commercial real estate)
The only reason CORE-Inflation is so sticky is that it's lagging real-time data...Sticky Inflation WILL FALL
- Zillow rents lead Shelter CPI by 6-12m,
Major Metro Shelter Inflation is negative
New & Old, housing Supply, is rising, which should lead to = Lower prices
Redfin Shelter Prices are falling
The average performance of the S&P 500 following Peak CPI (last 70y)...right on target2 | Better than Expected Growth
- The economy is still expanding, just at a slower pace.
Home Builder ETFs at All-Time Highs, signaling confidence or positive sentiment
- More supply = lower prices
The US Service Economy is holding up.
Let's say Services roll over; well...that brings us to the next point...
3 | MORE Stimulus
- The Answer to Slower growth is more COWBELL
The Answer to Bank Failures was More COWBELL
BEST WAY TO GET RE-ELECTED - More Stimulus (MORE COWBELL)Infrastructure Bill - 1.2TChips ACT - 280BInflation Reduction ACT - 650BBidenomics - The White House Will Keep Stimulating the Economy
Who benefits?
- RE-newable Energy
- Electric Vehicles
- Energy Storage
- AI
- Semi-conductors
- Robotics + Automation
- Blockchain
So, More Stimulus means higher asset prices
4 | Evaporating Volatility Risks
Following the Debt ceiling resolution, The market risk narrative became " OMG Liquidity drain via TGA refill," as Banks become forced buyers of Treasury debt, draining liquidity. This would hurt Risk assets the most...but
The Treasury is targeting MMF for Liquidity, preventing a drain in the bond market.
- The U.S. Treasury is concentrating its debt issuance on short-dated bills to attract Money Market funds.
Money market funds are removing their cash from RRP and buying short-dated bills, which goes into the TGA
By taking liquidity from MMF, the Treasury avoids a "liquidity drain" from the banking sector ie, Risk assets
- The TGA build means The government can prevent recession with Fiscal Stimulus. If there are any surprises, the Fed cuts rates, the balance sheet grows, and Wallah asset prices increase.
- So the biggest Risk is that Inflation comes back...not likely
Should you buy Real Estate?