Economics
The social science that studies how individuals, businesses, governments, and societies allocate scarce resources to meet their unlimited wants and needs.
Corrections are BULLISH
Crypto Summer is here! And Investors are massively underinvested.
Early Cycle Boom: Charts + Bets
The February 2024 business cycle EXPLAINED using charts and logic.
The Productivity Expansion
Market Update: December 10
Fed Beige Book: October release
This Summarizes comments received from contacts outside the Federal Reserve System and is not a commentary on the views of Federal Reserve officials.
EARNINGS SEASONS BOOM
Historically, the 4th Quarter is the strongest season for Stocks, Especially in a Pre-election year.
This is the Set Up...
Seasonal spending drives temporary employment opportunities, leading to periodic economic growth and associated stock market surges. December might witness the last significant spending push from consumers for the year.
Year End Santa Claus Rally
While there are positive indicators like the health of the services sector and technical stock indicators, plenty of uncertainties and potential challenges are ahead. Monitoring and understanding these factors will be crucial for investors navigating the market landscape.
Key Takeaways from the September FOMC Meeting
Key Takeaways from the September FOMC Meeting
STOCKS CAN RALLY to ALL TIME HIGHS in 2023
2nd Week of September Market Report: Imminent Market Rally
Don't be Fooled | Macro Update
There's Really No Reason for the Fed to Hike in September, which is very constructive for the stock market; we know rates are in restrictive territory, Core + Super Core inflation is Falling, while fundamentals are improving.
Fed Beige Book | September
The Beige Book is a report published by the Federal Reserve eight times a year, providing anecdotal information on the current economic conditions in various regions of the United States.
VERY BULLISH...Except for this ONE THING
Last Week of august Macro Report | STILL A BULL MARKET
Will The Fed Force a second half Slump?
The Good and Bad news for Markets following the Annual Jackson Hole meeting.
Why Crude Oil Moves Lower
In a recent report, I delved into the global oil landscape undergoing profound shifts, particularly with the resurgence of the so-called "fragile five" nations: Iran, Iraq, Libya, Nigeria, and Venezuela. Here's a breakdown of the findings:
Inflation + Rates + Economy
Amidst debates on the U.S. economy, experts discuss the role of shelter in inflation, bond market signals, and the Federal Reserve's influence. Rising yields challenge equities, while economic strength persists. The focus remains on inflation, interest rates, and potential Federal Reserve responses.
Good News Bad News | Market Update
3rd Week of August Macro Report | Good News, Bad News
Analyst Concerns plus Optimism | August 18th, 2023
While August's market performance has raised concerns, experts remain cautiously optimistic. With a blend of historical trends, current data, and forward-looking predictions, investors are poised for an eventful end to the year.
This might be a buying Opportunity | August 17th, 2023
The underlying strength in productivity and potential for earnings growth can provide support to the market despite rising yields.
FOMC Minutes Review | Aug 16th 2023
A collection of key points and excerpts from the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) minutes discussing the Federal Reserve's stance on interest rates, inflation, and the overall economic situation.
Stocks Tumble off potential Bank Downgrades
Potential Fitch Downgrades are posing risks to the 2023 economy and Bull market.
The Melt up to All Time Highs
2nd Week of August Macro Report | Another buying opportuninty
Banks face additional credit rating reductions 8/23
Moody's has adjusted the credit ratings of several U.S. banks due to concerns about interest rate and ALM risks, the potential for a mild recession in 2024, and the anticipated decline in asset quality.
Positive Core Inflation Surprise | July Data
Inflation predictions for Thursday, August 10th
Good News Bad News
1st week of August 2023 | The good and bad news heading into August
Goldilocks
4th Week of July Macro Market Report | Growth Up Earnings UP Inflation DOWN.
The Bull Market Expands
3rd week of July Macro report | The Bull Market Expands
End GAME SIGNALS + WAVE TWO FOMO
2nd week of July Macro Economic Report | Inflation evaporates
EPS up GDP up | WAVE 2 FOMO
S&P 500 Q2 Earnings Guidance expected to rise along with upward revisions on GDP from Atlanta Fed GDP now forcasts.
Stay Bullish | Macro Report
1st week of July Macro Report: Stay Bullish
FOMC Minutes July
July FOMC minutes from June Meeting
4 Reason the Bull Market Continues: WAVE TWO FOMO
Extremely Bullish
Why the Bull Market continues to ALL TIME HIGHS IN 2023
Macro Report: Short Squeeze continues
2nd Week of June Macro Update:
Macro Report: The Turn is here
2nd Week of June Macro Update: ExpectedLiquidity?
Macro Report: Global Liquidity Rises
First week of June Macro Report: Bull market confirmed
5 reasons the Bulls are in Control
5 Reasons the Bulls are in Control: Technicals + Fundamental + Macroeconomics
Nasdaq Defies all odds?
Macro Report: Final Week of May.June Rate Hike Back on the Table!
Macro Report: 3rd week of May
Macro Report: 3rd week of May
SHELTER will bring down CORE
Quick update on Shelter CPI via Redfin Data + ZIllow
Strengthening the Case for a Pause
2nd week of May Macro update.
Slow Progress on Inflation
Understanding April's inflation report.
No Gifts To China
China will Capitalize on this Opportunity. Pay attention to this Chart
Is Powell done hiking? The Market thinks so
Macro Update | 1st Week of May, do not miss this!
5 Charts Signaling a Macro Breakout
Five Charts Tipping the Scales towards a Macro Breakout for Stocks and Crypto
Bull Market Trend in Tact 📈 here's why
The Final Week of April Macro update! Inflation softens, the economy weakens, and markets remain resilient. Here's why
What Is Technical Analysis?
Explaining Technical Analysis
The BULL-MARKET is RIGHT around the corner!
3rd Weak of April Market Update: Earnings are beating expectations while Hedge funds remain incredibly bearish. The Global economy is Recovering
Understanding a Rolling Recession
learn the basic differences between a rolling recession , soft recession and deep economic recession.
The Benefits of a Weakening U.S. Dollar for U.S. Multinational Equities
A quick dive into the benefits of a weakening dollar for U.S. Multinational Equities
Equity Credit Risk
How Credit Spread Risk Signals investor sentiment and economic conditions.
The Credit Crunch Begins! 😨
The first week of April Update: Credit Crunch, softening growth and bullish Technicals.
Economic Growth Leads Inflation
Dive into the fascinating world of economic growth and inflation, and discover how they impact each other in ways that matter to everyday life.
Supply Side Inflation: Global Supply Chain Pressure Index
Supply chain disruptions have become a major challenge for the global economy since the start of the COVID-19 pandemic. GSCPI offers a measurement of global supply chain pressures.
📉 Credit Crunch 😨
What Tighter Lending Standards mean for the economy and markets. We will explore the steps and implications of a credit crunch.
The China Credit Impulse : A Leading Macroeconomic Indicator
How China's Credit Impulse is leading Macro-economic indicator.
Supply vs Demand side Inflation
This post will explain the difference between supply-side inflation and demand-side inflation.
Markets move when the Fed speaks
The short explanation for why the Federal reserve's expectations in written or spoken word move markets.
How Central Banks Control Borrowing Costs : Fed Funds Rate
The Federal Reserve, also known as the U.S. central bank, uses the Federal Funds Rate to control the cost of credit and liquidity in the financial system. By lowering or raising the rate, they can make it cheaper or more expensive for banks to borrow and affect the overall money supply.
How Central Banks Control the Money Supply : The Feds Balance Sheet
The Federal Reserve has ways to control the money supply by buying or selling assets, like Treasury securities or Mortgage backed securitues through their balance sheet and open market operations. This affects the amount of money banks have on reserve.
The Beginning of Disinflation
The 3rd week of March Update | Disinflation has started; Technology Stocks and Crypto are leading the rally while the Fed hints at the end of QT.