over 1 year ago

#Stock Market
#Economics
End GAME SIGNALS + WAVE TWO FOMO cover image

End GAME SIGNALS + WAVE TWO FOMO

JF

Jeremy Fielder

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WAVE TWO FOMO continues...here's why

1) Inflations Evaporating

  • CPI falls deeper into restrictive territory,
  • PPI is Virtually ZERO
  • Sticky Inflation is Evaporating 
  • Lowest "CORE" Since Oct 2021
  • Shelter is the Primary component keeping inflation "sticky", & keeping the Fed from ending the War against inflation. 
So Inflation is falling while growth is set to rebound.

GDP Growth is bottoming 
  • The GDPNow estimates for real GDP growth in the Q2-2023 is 2.3 percent on July 10, up from 2.1 percent on July 6.

  • The Nowcast of second-quarter real gross private domestic investment growth increased from 9.6 percent to 10.5 percent.

  • Consumer Sentiment is Rebounding
  • Savings Rate is rising (incomes are steady because there are jobs)
  • Service Activity is expanding (carrying the economy)
  • Food,Energy and Producer Inflation is coming down

2) The Cost of Global Trade Just got Cheaper

G4 Money Growth YoY​
This doesn't even Take into account Gov Spending
  • More Fiscal 

3) RISKS are Evaporating



4) Market Breadth is Increasing

  • Over 250 Stocks up 100% YTD 
  • 259 Stocks up 100% in 2023
Advance Decline by Sector 

More Breadthe

Historically Bullish 
  • Let's Not forget, Stocks are Still SQUEEZING, while earnings are Set to Bottom.

5) Earnings Maybe Troughing

  • Negative EPS guidance Falls
  • Positive EPS Guidance Rises 
  •  41% of S&P 500 companies issuing EPS guidance for Q2 are issuing positive EPS guidance.
  • Q2 has the highest number of S&P 500 companies issuing positive EPS guidance since Q3 2021.
  • Information Technology and Industrials sectors have the highest number of companies issuing positive EPS guidance.
  • Software and Semiconductors & Semiconductor Equipment industries have the highest number of companies issuing positive EPS guidance in the Information Technology sector.
  • Retaining Earnings
  • So Far the Big Banks are beating Estimates
Valuations Don't matter When EVERYONES underweight There's a rush to get in because
  • inflation is moderating
  • the economy is stronger than expected
  • and earnings are bottoming.
When investors are Over-weight than Valuation concerns  come into Play.

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When this SHIP Turns Around

  • Record Short Positioning on FIXED INCOME may be turning around....

  • Uncertain about second 1/2 of year
  • Inflation moderating (Rate of inflation is below the rate of interest) 

  • Demand for Fixed income.

  • Record Short Positioning on FIXED INCOME

CONCERNS



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